Archive for December, 2008

Doug Kass Rolls Out 2009 Predictions, Ignore Them At Your Own Peril!

December 30, 2008
Did Investors in '33 Feel Like We Do At The End of '08?

Did Investors in '33 Feel Like We Do At The End of '08?

Right around now, in the no man’s land between the holidays and New Years Eve, we are usually bombarded with several types of year-end articles from nearly every media source out there.  Everyone does their top ten list for the year that’s ending, the highlights and lowlights (more of the latter this year) followed by a raft of predictions for the year to come.  Nobody does the prediction thing quite like Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners.

In taking a page from Byron Wein of Morgan Stanley fame, Doug Kass has been listing 20 possible outlying  events for the coming year for the past 6 years and in ’08, he absolutely killed it.  60% of his 20 predictions for 2008 came to pass, including some of the more far-fetched ones.  For these recent prescient calls, Kass made my Bear Hall of Fame.

Yesterday, Kass’s 20 Surpises for 2009 list came out, and while I can’t link to it as it requires a Realmoney Silver subscription (from, I will share some of his ideas that were the most interesting to me.

At the top, he comes out and predicts that any day now, CNBC will announce that a significant amount of money from the Russian Oligarchy and/ or Russian Mafia has been lost in the Madoff Scandal.  I’ve read elsewhere on the web of the possibility that some Columbian Cartel money, through the Fairfield Greenwich Group fund of funds, may have been , err, misplaced by Bernie as well.  If either or both of these speculations turn out to be true, I wouldn’t want to be within 50 miles of either the Madoffs or the Noels.